How US presidential election may be decided

4 weeks ago 3
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The 2024 US presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presents a complex array of strengths and weaknesses for each candidate, influenced by voter demographics, pressing national issues, and each candidate’s ability to connect with critical voting blocs.

Former president Trump has strong appeal among older, White, and rural voters and holds a significant advantage on issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime. Many voters view him as having a reliable economic track record, which boosts his appeal during a period of inflation and rising costs.

However, his personal style, which includes frequent criticisms of Vice President Harris and a combative public presence, could alienate moderate voters and younger demographics, who tend to disfavor his communication style.

Additionally, Trump’s age is a concern for nearly half of voters, with some questioning his ability to complete a full term if elected. Voters also express concerns about his perceived divisiveness, with only a third believing he can unify the country.

Harris, on the other hand, attracts support from younger, Black, Latino, Asian, and urban voters, and is viewed favorably on social issues, including abortion rights and racial equality.

She has recently improved in polling, as Democrats rally behind her more enthusiastically following President Biden’s exit from the race.

Harris is also seen as a historic candidate due to her gender and racial background, which resonates with voters who prioritise diversity and representation.

However, Harris’s appeal is limited to economic issues, with voters showing slightly less confidence in her ability to address economic and foreign policy challenges effectively.

Like Trump, a relatively low percentage of voters believe she can bridge partisan divides.
Both candidates face an electorate deeply concerned with multiple issues. Economic concerns remain paramount, with inflation, job stability, and housing costs driving voter priorities.

Trump’s edge on economic and immigration policies gives him an advantage with voters who rank these issues highest.

Conversely, Harris benefits from significant support for abortion rights, especially following the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which energized Democratic voters.

Other key issues, such as criminal justice, immigration, and healthcare, are also dividing voter preferences, with Trump supporters focusing more on security and border issues, while Harris backers are inclined toward social justice and healthcare.

Voter enthusiasm and turnout will be critical, with both candidates having dedicated bases. Harris has recently gained momentum with an increasingly satisfied Democratic base, which may contribute to higher Democratic turnout.

Meanwhile, Trump supporters tend to display strong loyalty, especially among those who voted for him in 2020. However, the election will likely hinge on which candidate can appeal to undecided and moderate voters who are still unsure of the best path forward.

The outcome may be decided by economic sentiments, perceptions of each candidate’s capability to address divisive social issues, and the ability to mobilize younger and minority voters for Harris or rural and older voters for Trump.

The historic nature of Harris’s candidacy and Trump’s established base of support add unique dynamics to this closely contested race.

In a deadlocked contest, the election could ultimately be swayed by which candidate has been able to effectively convey plans that address both immediate economic needs and broader social issues.

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